US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:30 Empire Manufacturing – consensus -1.00, prior -5.22 09:00 Total Net TIC Flows – prior $4.7B 09:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows – consensus $25.0B, prior $3.3B 11:00 Fed buying $4.25b-$5.25b notes in 6 to 8-year range 11:30 Treasury selling $32b 3-month, $28b 6-month bills 1:00 Treasury selling $35b 2-year notes
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance 14:00 CAD Existing Home Sales Earnings No major reports
Tuesday, December 18
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:30 Current Account Balance – consensus -$104.0B consensus, prior -$117.4B 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index – consensus 47, prior 46 11:00 Fed to buy $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range 11:30 Treasury selling 4-week 1:00 Treasury selling $35b 5-year notes 2:00 Fed selling $7b-$8b notes in 3-year range
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
00:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 08:00 CNY China Property Prices 09:30 GBP PPI 09:30 GBP CPI
Earnings
Before Factset Research (FDS) Jefferies (JEF) After: Oracle (ORCL)
Wednesday, December 19
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 08:30 Housing Starts – consensus 874K, prior 894K 08:30 Building Permits – consensus 875K, prior 868K 11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range 1:00 Treasury selling $29b 7-year notes Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting 05:00 JPY Leading Index 09:00 EUR German IFO Business Climate 09:30 GBP BoE Minutes 21:45 NZD GDP
Earnings
Before General Mills (GIS) Fedex (FDX) After Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) Jabil Circuit (JBL) Paychex (PAYX)
Thursday, December 20
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:30 Initial Claims – consensus 360K, prior 343K 08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3215K, prior 3205K 08:30 GDP QoQ (Annualized) – consensus 2.8%, prior 2.7% 08:30 Personal Consumption – consensus 1.5%, prior 1.4% 08:30 GDP Price Index – consensus 2.7%, prior 2.7% 08:30 Core PCE – consensus 1.1%, prior 1.1% 10:00 Philly Fed – consensus -3, prior -10.7 10:00 Existing Home Sales – consensus 4.90M, prior 4.79M 10:00 Leading Indicators – consensus -0.2%, prior 0.2% 10:00 House Price Index – consensus 0.2%, prior 0.2% 11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 11 to 20-year range 1:00 Treasury selling $14b 5-year TIPS 2:00 Fed selling $7b-$8b notes in 2.5-year range
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
JPY BoJ Rate Decision 07:00 CHF Trade Balance 07:00 EUR German PPI 09:30 GBP Retail Sales 13:30 CAD Retail Sales 15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence
Earnings
Before KB Home (KBH) Carmax (KMX) Discover Financial (DFS) Darden Restaurants (DRI) Conagra (CAG) After Nike (NKE) Micron Tech (MU) Red Hat (RHT) Carnival (CCL)
Friday, December 21 US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:30 Chicago Fed – prior -0.56 08:30 Personal Income – consensus 0.3%, prior 0.0% 08:30 Personal Spending – consensus 0.4%, prior -0.2% 08:30 PCE Deflator YoY – consensus 1.6%, prior 1.7% 08:30 PCE Core YoY – consensus 1.6%, prior 1.6% 08:30 Durable Goods – consensus 0.5%, prior 0.5% 08:30 Durable Goods ex Transports – consensus -0.2%, prior 1.8% 08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air – consensus -1.1%, prior 1.7% 08:30 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air – consensus 0.8%, prior -0.4% 09:55 University of Michigan Confidence (2nd estimate) – consensus 75, prior 74.5 11:00 Kansas City Fed – consensus -5, prior -6 11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
02:00 NZD Credit Card Spending 07:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence 09:30 GBP Public Finances 09:30 GBP GDP 13:30 CAD GDP 13:30 CAD CPI
Monday: German trade data takes on extra importance after both the Bundesbank and ECB Chairman Mario Draghi warned that the EU and Germany specifically are likely to experience a recession.
Tuesday: International news will continue to dominate the headlines as Japan releases CPI data and machinery orders while Germany reports its ZEW business survey.
Wednesday: The US is center stage; FOMC minutes and economic outlook will be released in the late morning before Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke holds his news conference.
Thursday: Jobless claims, Producer Price Index, and retail sales data are released and could particularly impact retail stocks after last Friday's surprise drop in consumer confidence data.
Friday: Industrial production figures are likely to overshadow US and European CPI data. (I like to look at the production figures along with manufacturing data as forward-looking indicators of economic activity.)
Monday: ISM manufacturing data and construction spending should provide further evidence of a strengthening US economy.
Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales are set to be released.
Wednesday: The ADP employment report, factory orders, and ISM non-manufacturing reports are all on tap. Today will also be an active international data day, as economic news from Europe and China are on tap. There is a significant possibility of added volatility today.
Thursday: Jobless claims figures will be released, and so will some earnings reports. Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ:SWHC) could have a good day; early reports show that guns and ammunition are flying off the shelves.
Friday: The retail sales report should overshadow the employment report. It's not been an easy road for retailers so far. Of the 28 stocks that have negative momentum within the S&P 500, eight are retail stocks, which is the largest percentage share.
Monday: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey data and weekend retail sales reports will be at the forefront of investors' minds.
Tuesday: Durable goods orders, S&P Case-Shiller Index, and Consumer Confidence reports are on tap. As deadlines loom, European politics related to Spain and Greece will also drive market direction.
Wednesday: New homes sales data should help confirm the housing turnaround.
Thursday: GDP data, jobless claims, and pending home sales will be reported.
Friday: Personal income and spending will be released
Monday: Oil prices may gyrate as tensions between Israel and Hamas continue to rise. The existing home sales report at 10:00 a.m. EST will be the key economic report of the day.
Tuesday: Housing starts data is released.
Wednesday: This will be the week's busiest reporting day and is also likely to be a light volume day. Jobless claims, consumer sentiment, leading indicators, and EIA petroleum reports are all on tap.
Thursday: Happy Thanksgiving
Friday: Expect light trading volume on this half-day. Should there be a rally, investors might be able to take advantage of some option pricing discrepancies today.
Monday: It's Veterans' Day; banks and bond markets are closed, while stock exchanges are open. DR Horton (NYSE:DHI) reports earnings.
Tuesday: No meaningful economic data will be released. Expect international news to dominate and drive market direction.
Wednesday: Producer Price Index and Retail Sales reports will be released in the morning, but market participants will likely wait until the 2:10 p.m. release of the FOMC minutes to determine market direction.
Thursday: Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims, and The Philly Fed Index are all on tap. Economic data has been improving in the last few months; investors could start paying attention and let the recent market rally resume.
Friday: Industrial Production figures will be released. Based on current trend, expect this report to surprise on the upside and give markets a boost.
Monday ISM non-manufacturing report follows stronger-than-expected manufacturing data and construction spending figures from Thursday. I expect a slight increase month-over-month, confirming modest economic improvements.
Tuesday is Election Day, and it's too close to call. Moreover, I do not believe that markets will gain meaningful clarity regarding changes in policy from the election. There are several critical economic reports and policy decisions being made this week in China and Europe, however I believe markets will remain focused on the US elections.
Wednesday trading will be driven by the election results and earnings reports. Among widely owned stocks set to report are Kraft Foods (NASDAQ:KRFT), Macy's (NYSE:M), Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN), Sunoco Logistics (NYSE:SXL), and Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP). So far, about 70% of the companies within the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) have reported, and of these, only 39% have beaten revenue expectations while 63% have beaten earnings estimates. Revenues have grown 3.6% y/y on average, whole EPS has grown 15.5% y/y on average.
Thursday's jobless claims numbers will be the only meaningful economic figures reported that day.
Friday's trading is likely to be driven by consumer sentiment figures as well as the end of the third quarter earnings season.
Given the absence of major economic news, earnings will drive market direction early in the week. Monday's reports by Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) will kick things off, followed by a heavy reporting day on Tuesday (Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), 3M (NYSE:MMM), DuPont(NYSE:DFT), Boeing (NYSE:BA), UPS (NYSE:UPS), and Xerox (NYSE:XRX) are among widely owned stocks reporting). Moreover, 216 companies will report earnings on Thursday, including Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).
Monetary policy and economic news will hit the tape on Wednesday as the FMOC concludes its monthly two-day meeting and is set to release notes at 2:15 p.m. EDT.
After Moody's reaffirmed Spain's debt as investment grade, and with the European Summit concluded, look for Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy to officially ask for a bailout for the country, which is a step most analysts agree would be positive for the market.
Friday's GDP report will be the most significant economic report of the week.
My B.A. Degree is from the University of Arkansas. I've been trading since 2002 and teaching options trading since 2006. Learn to trade Option Income Spreads like a Pro! Email optionmentor@gmail.com for more about The Option Mentor Program.
To learn more about The Option Mentor Programclick here.
Help Keep This Content Free
Trading the Market Structure
Trades are set up using the "Trading the Market Structure" method. It is derived by taking the most common trading methods, Delta Neutral Trading, Swing Trading, and Trend Trading, and combining them into one system. By combining them in this fashion they offset each other's weaknesses, thus creating an unusually effective strategy.
To begin to understand the simple technicals behind this Trading System set up your Weekly, Daily, 30 minute, and 10 minute charts with these links:
of Japan Minutes
