US Economics (Time Zone: EDT) 08:30 Empire Manufacturing – consensus -1.00, prior -5.22 09:00 Total Net TIC Flows – prior $4.7B 09:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows – consensus $25.0B, prior $3.3B 11:00 Fed buying $4.25b-$5.25b notes in 6 to 8-year range 11:30 Treasury selling $32b 3-month, $28b 6-month bills 1:00 Treasury selling $35b 2-year notes
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance 14:00 CAD Existing Home Sales Earnings No major reports
Tuesday, December 18
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:30 Current Account Balance – consensus -$104.0B consensus, prior -$117.4B 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index – consensus 47, prior 46 11:00 Fed to buy $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range 11:30 Treasury selling 4-week 1:00 Treasury selling $35b 5-year notes 2:00 Fed selling $7b-$8b notes in 3-year range
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
00:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 08:00 CNY China Property Prices 09:30 GBP PPI 09:30 GBP CPI
Earnings
Before Factset Research (FDS) Jefferies (JEF) After: Oracle (ORCL)
Wednesday, December 19
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
07:00 MBA Mortgage Index 08:30 Housing Starts – consensus 874K, prior 894K 08:30 Building Permits – consensus 875K, prior 868K 11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range 1:00 Treasury selling $29b 7-year notes Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting 05:00 JPY Leading Index 09:00 EUR German IFO Business Climate 09:30 GBP BoE Minutes 21:45 NZD GDP
Earnings
Before General Mills (GIS) Fedex (FDX) After Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) Jabil Circuit (JBL) Paychex (PAYX)
Thursday, December 20
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:30 Initial Claims – consensus 360K, prior 343K 08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3215K, prior 3205K 08:30 GDP QoQ (Annualized) – consensus 2.8%, prior 2.7% 08:30 Personal Consumption – consensus 1.5%, prior 1.4% 08:30 GDP Price Index – consensus 2.7%, prior 2.7% 08:30 Core PCE – consensus 1.1%, prior 1.1% 10:00 Philly Fed – consensus -3, prior -10.7 10:00 Existing Home Sales – consensus 4.90M, prior 4.79M 10:00 Leading Indicators – consensus -0.2%, prior 0.2% 10:00 House Price Index – consensus 0.2%, prior 0.2% 11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 11 to 20-year range 1:00 Treasury selling $14b 5-year TIPS 2:00 Fed selling $7b-$8b notes in 2.5-year range
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
JPY BoJ Rate Decision 07:00 CHF Trade Balance 07:00 EUR German PPI 09:30 GBP Retail Sales 13:30 CAD Retail Sales 15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence
Earnings
Before KB Home (KBH) Carmax (KMX) Discover Financial (DFS) Darden Restaurants (DRI) Conagra (CAG) After Nike (NKE) Micron Tech (MU) Red Hat (RHT) Carnival (CCL)
Friday, December 21 US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
08:30 Chicago Fed – prior -0.56 08:30 Personal Income – consensus 0.3%, prior 0.0% 08:30 Personal Spending – consensus 0.4%, prior -0.2% 08:30 PCE Deflator YoY – consensus 1.6%, prior 1.7% 08:30 PCE Core YoY – consensus 1.6%, prior 1.6% 08:30 Durable Goods – consensus 0.5%, prior 0.5% 08:30 Durable Goods ex Transports – consensus -0.2%, prior 1.8% 08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air – consensus -1.1%, prior 1.7% 08:30 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air – consensus 0.8%, prior -0.4% 09:55 University of Michigan Confidence (2nd estimate) – consensus 75, prior 74.5 11:00 Kansas City Fed – consensus -5, prior -6 11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)
02:00 NZD Credit Card Spending 07:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence 09:30 GBP Public Finances 09:30 GBP GDP 13:30 CAD GDP 13:30 CAD CPI
Monday: German trade data takes on extra importance after both the Bundesbank and ECB Chairman Mario Draghi warned that the EU and Germany specifically are likely to experience a recession.
Tuesday: International news will continue to dominate the headlines as Japan releases CPI data and machinery orders while Germany reports its ZEW business survey.
Wednesday: The US is center stage; FOMC minutes and economic outlook will be released in the late morning before Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke holds his news conference.
Thursday: Jobless claims, Producer Price Index, and retail sales data are released and could particularly impact retail stocks after last Friday's surprise drop in consumer confidence data.
Friday: Industrial production figures are likely to overshadow US and European CPI data. (I like to look at the production figures along with manufacturing data as forward-looking indicators of economic activity.)
Monday: ISM manufacturing data and construction spending should provide further evidence of a strengthening US economy.
Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales are set to be released.
Wednesday: The ADP employment report, factory orders, and ISM non-manufacturing reports are all on tap. Today will also be an active international data day, as economic news from Europe and China are on tap. There is a significant possibility of added volatility today.
Thursday: Jobless claims figures will be released, and so will some earnings reports. Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ:SWHC) could have a good day; early reports show that guns and ammunition are flying off the shelves.
Friday: The retail sales report should overshadow the employment report. It's not been an easy road for retailers so far. Of the 28 stocks that have negative momentum within the S&P 500, eight are retail stocks, which is the largest percentage share.
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Trading the Market Structure
Trades are set up using the "Trading the Market Structure" method. It is derived by taking the most common trading methods, Delta Neutral Trading, Swing Trading, and Trend Trading, and combining them into one system. By combining them in this fashion they offset each other's weaknesses, thus creating an unusually effective strategy.
To begin to understand the simple technicals behind this Trading System set up your Weekly, Daily, 30 minute, and 10 minute charts with these links:
of Japan Minutes
