THIS WEEK'S MARKET MOVERS

Monday, December 17

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
 
08:30 Empire Manufacturing – consensus -1.00, prior -5.22
09:00 Total Net TIC Flows – prior $4.7B
09:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows – consensus $25.0B, prior $3.3B
11:00 Fed buying $4.25b-$5.25b notes in 6 to 8-year range
11:30 Treasury selling $32b 3-month, $28b 6-month bills
1:00 Treasury selling $35b 2-year notes

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance
14:00 CAD Existing Home Sales
 
Earnings
 
No major reports


Tuesday, December 18

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Current Account Balance – consensus -$104.0B consensus, prior -$117.4B
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index – consensus 47, prior 46
11:00 Fed to buy $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week
1:00 Treasury selling $35b 5-year notes
2:00 Fed selling $7b-$8b notes in 3-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

00:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence
08:00 CNY China Property Prices
09:30 GBP PPI
09:30 GBP CPI

Earnings

Before
Factset Research (FDS)
Jefferies (JEF)
After:
Oracle (ORCL)


Wednesday, December 19

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

07:00 MBA Mortgage Index
08:30 Housing Starts – consensus 874K, prior 894K
08:30 Building Permits – consensus 875K, prior 868K
11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $29b 7-year notes
                       
Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting
05:00 JPY Leading Index
09:00 EUR German IFO Business Climate
09:30 GBP BoE Minutes
21:45 NZD GDP

Earnings

Before
General Mills (GIS)
Fedex (FDX)
After
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)
Jabil Circuit (JBL)
Paychex (PAYX)


Thursday, December 20

US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Initial Claims – consensus 360K, prior 343K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3215K, prior 3205K
08:30 GDP QoQ (Annualized) – consensus 2.8%, prior 2.7%
08:30 Personal Consumption – consensus 1.5%, prior 1.4%
08:30 GDP Price Index – consensus 2.7%, prior 2.7%
08:30 Core PCE – consensus 1.1%, prior 1.1%
10:00 Philly Fed – consensus -3, prior -10.7
10:00 Existing Home Sales – consensus 4.90M, prior 4.79M
10:00 Leading Indicators – consensus -0.2%, prior 0.2%
10:00 House Price Index – consensus 0.2%, prior 0.2%
11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 11 to 20-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $14b 5-year TIPS
2:00 Fed selling $7b-$8b notes in 2.5-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

JPY BoJ Rate Decision
07:00 CHF Trade Balance
07:00 EUR German PPI
09:30 GBP Retail Sales
13:30 CAD Retail Sales
15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Earnings

Before
KB Home (KBH)
Carmax (KMX)
Discover Financial (DFS)
Darden Restaurants (DRI)
Conagra (CAG)
After
Nike (NKE)
Micron Tech (MU)
Red Hat (RHT)
Carnival (CCL)


Friday, December 21
 
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)

08:30 Chicago Fed – prior -0.56
08:30 Personal Income – consensus 0.3%, prior 0.0%
08:30 Personal Spending – consensus 0.4%, prior -0.2%
08:30 PCE Deflator YoY – consensus 1.6%, prior 1.7%
08:30 PCE Core YoY – consensus 1.6%, prior 1.6%
08:30 Durable Goods – consensus 0.5%, prior 0.5%
08:30 Durable Goods ex Transports – consensus -0.2%, prior 1.8%
08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air – consensus -1.1%, prior 1.7%
08:30 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air – consensus 0.8%, prior -0.4%
09:55 University of Michigan Confidence (2^nd estimate) – consensus 75, prior 74.5
11:00 Kansas City Fed – consensus -5, prior -6
11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range

Global Economics (Time Zone: GMT)

02:00 NZD Credit Card Spending
07:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence
09:30 GBP Public Finances
09:30 GBP GDP
13:30 CAD GDP
13:30 CAD CPI

Earnings

Before:
Walgreen's (WAG)

THIS WEEK'S MARKET MOVERS

• Monday: German trade data takes on extra importance after both the Bundesbank and ECB Chairman Mario Draghi warned that the EU and Germany specifically are likely to experience a recession.

• Tuesday: International news will continue to dominate the headlines as Japan releases CPI data and machinery orders while Germany reports its ZEW business survey.

• Wednesday: The US is center stage; FOMC minutes and economic outlook will be released in the late morning before Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke holds his news conference.

• Thursday: Jobless claims, Producer Price Index, and retail sales data are released and could particularly impact retail stocks after last Friday's surprise drop in consumer confidence data.

• Friday:  Industrial production figures are likely to overshadow US and European CPI data. (I like to look at the production figures along with manufacturing data as forward-looking indicators of economic activity.)

THIS WEEK'S MARKET MOVERS

• Monday: ISM manufacturing data and construction spending should provide further evidence of a strengthening US economy.

• Tuesday: Motor vehicle sales are set to be released.

• Wednesday: The ADP employment report, factory orders, and ISM non-manufacturing reports are all on tap. Today will also be an active international data day, as economic news from Europe and China are on tap. There is a significant possibility of added volatility today.

• Thursday: Jobless claims figures will be released, and so will some earnings reports. Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ:SWHC) could have a good day; early reports show that guns and ammunition are flying off the shelves.

• Friday: The retail sales report should overshadow the employment report. It's not been an easy road for retailers so far. Of the 28 stocks that have negative momentum within the S&P 500, eight are retail stocks, which is the largest percentage share.

THIS WEEK'S MARKET MOVERS

• Monday: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey data and weekend retail sales reports will be at the forefront of investors' minds.

• Tuesday: Durable goods orders, S&P Case-Shiller Index, and Consumer Confidence reports are on tap. As deadlines loom, European politics related to Spain and Greece will also drive market direction.

• Wednesday: New homes sales data should help confirm the housing turnaround.

• Thursday: GDP data, jobless claims, and pending home sales will be reported.

• Friday: Personal income and spending will be released

THIS WEEK'S MARKET MOVERS

• Monday: Oil prices may gyrate as tensions between Israel and Hamas continue to rise. The existing home sales report at 10:00 a.m. EST will be the key economic report of the day.

• Tuesday: Housing starts data is released.

• Wednesday: This will be the week's busiest reporting day and is also likely to be a light volume day. Jobless claims, consumer sentiment, leading indicators, and EIA petroleum reports are all on tap.  

• Thursday: Happy Thanksgiving

• Friday: Expect light trading volume on this half-day. Should there be a rally, investors might be able to take advantage of some option pricing discrepancies today.

THIS WEEK'S MARKET MOVERS

• Monday: It's Veterans' Day; banks and bond markets are closed, while stock exchanges are open. DR Horton (NYSE:DHI) reports earnings.

• Tuesday: No meaningful economic data will be released. Expect international news to dominate and drive market direction.

• Wednesday: Producer Price Index and Retail Sales reports will be released in the morning, but market participants will likely wait until the 2:10 p.m. release of the FOMC minutes to determine market direction.

• Thursday: Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims, and The Philly Fed Index are all on tap. Economic data has been improving in the last few months; investors could start paying attention and let the recent market rally resume.

• Friday: Industrial Production figures will be released. Based on current trend, expect this report to surprise on the upside and give markets a boost.

THIS WEEK'S MARKET MOVERS

• Monday ISM non-manufacturing report follows stronger-than-expected manufacturing data and construction spending figures from Thursday. I expect a slight increase month-over-month, confirming modest economic improvements.

• Tuesday is Election Day, and it's too close to call. Moreover, I do not believe that markets will gain meaningful clarity regarding changes in policy from the election. There are several critical economic reports and policy decisions being made this week in China and Europe, however I believe markets will remain focused on the US elections.

• Wednesday trading will be driven by the election results and earnings reports. Among widely owned stocks set to report are Kraft Foods (NASDAQ:KRFT), Macy's (NYSE:M), Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN), Sunoco Logistics (NYSE:SXL), and Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP). So far, about 70% of the companies within the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) have reported, and of these, only 39% have beaten revenue expectations while 63% have beaten earnings estimates. Revenues have grown 3.6% y/y on average, whole EPS has grown 15.5% y/y on average.

• Thursday's jobless claims numbers will be the only meaningful economic figures reported that day.

• Friday's trading is likely to be driven by consumer sentiment figures as well as the end of the third quarter earnings season.