THIS WEEKS MARKET MOVERS

Monday May 23	Tuesday May 24	Wednesday May 25	Thursday May 26	Friday May 27
Market Focus » International Perspective » Simply Economics » James Bullard Speaks 5:30 AM ET John C. Williams Speaks 8:00 AM ET PMI Manufacturing Index Flash 9:45 AM ET 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET Patrick Harker Speaks 6:30 PM ET	Redbook 8:55 AM ET New Home Sales 10:00 AM ET Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 52-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 2-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET	MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET International Trade in Goods 8:30 AM ET FHFA House Price Index 9:00 AM ET PMI Services Flash 9:45 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET Robert Kaplan Speaks 1:00 PM ET 2-Yr FRN Note Auction 1:00 PM ET 5-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET	Weekly Bill Settlement James Bullard Speaks 5:15 AM ET Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index 11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET Jerome Powell Speaks 12:15 PM ET 7-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET Money Supply 4:30 PM ET	GDP 8:30 AM ET Corporate Profits 8:30 AM ET Consumer Sentiment 10:00 AM ET Baker-Hughes Rig Count 1:00 PM ET Janet Yellen Speaks 1:15 PM ET

It is hard to know how long the S&P 500 will be stuck in the narrow trading range at 2,040-2,058.

As noted in Tuesday's Daily Market Outlook, stocks have been able to withstand many "fears." And on Wednesday, fear of an impending rate hike should have been enough to drive the S&P 500 through its low at 2,034 and stick there. Instead, a cavalry charge of buying swept prices to an unchanged close — a strong signal that the bulls are holding.

However, cash is still king until Mr. Market clearly breaks out one way or the other.

The breakdown in the retail sector is a very negative development. Retail sales account for about 70% of GDP, so even one very negative day can have an impact on the broader market.

Regular readers know that I caution against predicting a pattern's development, especially one with a big market impact like a head-and-shoulders top, before all of its elements are in place. However, it appears this formation is developing on the S&P 500 with the index just over 6 points away from a breakdown at 2,040.

If the pattern's target of 1,969 is hit, we could see a test of the January/February lows at about 1,810

The market is telling us to be cautious.

THIS WEEKS MARKET MOVERS

Monday May 16	Tuesday May 17	Wednesday May 18	Thursday May 19	Friday May 20
Market Focus » International Perspective » Simply Economics » Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM ET Housing Market Index 10:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET Treasury International Capital 4:00 PM ET Neel Kashkari Speaks 7:00 PM ET	Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET Redbook 8:55 AM ET Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET E-Commerce Retail Sales 10:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET John Williams Speaks 12:00 PM ET Robert Kaplan Speaks 1:15 PM ET	MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations 10:00 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET	Weekly Bill Settlement Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey 8:30 AM ET Chicago Fed National Activity Index 8:30 AM ET Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET Leading Indicators 10:00 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET William Dudley Speaks 10:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 52-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 5-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET 7-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 2-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET 2-Yr FRN Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET 10-Yr TIPS Auction 1:00 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET Money Supply 4:30 PM ET	Existing Home Sales 10:00 AM ET Baker-Hughes Rig Count 1:00 PM ET

There are few investors willing to take risks at current levels. This is called "low conviction" and is reflected in the higher selling volume in IWM and negative internal indicators (MACD, momentum, etc.).

Even though the most recent signal from our S&P 500 17-month moving average chart was a buy signal, it was the fourth change of opinion in as many months.

The market appears to be topping prior to a "normal" summer adjustment lower of 5% to 8%