Despite Thursday's lack of follow-through, the intermediate trend is still up. However, the pronounced lack of momentum indicated the pessimists — or perhaps the fearful — clearly outnumbered the optimists.

To me, almost everything except for the biotech group appears overbought. And the energy sector is the most expensive, with Bespoke noting, "About half of the stocks in the sector are now more than 50% above their 52-week lows, and four are more than 100% above their lows."

Jeff Saut of Raymond James pointed out that the McClellan Report says, "Bearish for short and intermediate trading styles, bullish long term."

I agree in that I favor the "upside," but not now. Buy on pullbacks, not high-P/E advances.

Highly paid analysts would have us believe that a company's 

fundamentals drive stock prices. Yet how many times have you seen the stock of 

companies with good fundamentals crash while those with terrible fundamentals soar? 

But none of that matters for one simple reason . . . because at the end of the day, if 

there are more shares being bought than sold then the price of the stock will go up. 

And if there are more shares being sold than bought, then the price of the stock will 

go down. It's just that simple. Everything else is just noise. 

THIS WEEK'S MARKET MOVERS

Monday Apr 11	Tuesday Apr 12	Wednesday Apr 13	Thursday Apr 14	Friday Apr 15
Market Focus » International Perspective » Simply Economics » 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET Rob Kaplan Speaks 1:00 PM ET	NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 6:00 AM ET Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ET Redbook 8:55 AM ET Patrick Harper Speaks 9:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 3-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET John Williams Speaks 3:00 PM ET Jeffrey Lacker Speaks 4:00 PM ET	MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET PPI-FD 8:30 AM ET Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations 10:00 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET 10-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET Beige Book 2:00 PM ET	Weekly Bill Settlement Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET Dennis Lockhart Speaks 10:00 AM ET Jerome Powell Speaks 10:00 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 5-Yr TIPS Announcement 11:00 AM ET 30-Yr Bond Auction 1:00 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET Money Supply 4:30 PM ET	Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM ET Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET Consumer Sentiment 10:00 AM ET Charles Evans Speaks 12:30 PM ET Baker-Hughes Rig Count 1:00 PM ET Treasury International Capital 4:00 PM ET

Well, we knew that eventually there would have to be an adjustment or correction.

At this time, I am unable to make a prediction as to its extent. However, a common retracement, the Fibonacci Sequence, often provides an accurate line of reference. The assumption is that the market will correct 50% of the distance from a closing low to a closing high. And as mentioned, using this method on the S&P 500 yields a downside target of about 1,950, which is 4.5% below Thursday's close.

But there are likely to be many stops along the way and plenty of opportunities for profitable trades.

If the bulls can't do any better with the major indices than with the minors, we could be in for a long, sideways summer. The overall pattern is bullish, but there is a lack of momentum from buyers that is usually present at a breakout.

I believe stocks will eventually break to new highs. But if they do so this year, it will probably not occur until year end.

May is just around the corner and I doubt you need reminding of the oft-repeated ditty, "Sell in May and go away."

In a discussion of "The philosophy of tops," Jeff Saut of Raymond James cited Sentiment Trader's Jason Goepfert, who said the public has not been buying into the rally but has been loading up on put options. And as Goepfert points out, this is not the way tops are usually formed. But because of Fed interference there has been little that has been "usual" about this rally.

THIS WEEK'S MARKET MOVERS

Monday Apr 4	Tuesday Apr 5	Wednesday Apr 6	Thursday Apr 7	Friday Apr 8
Market Focus » International Perspective » Simply Economics » Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure 8:30 AM ET Labor Market Conditions Index 10:00 AM ET Factory Orders 10:00 AM ET Eric Rosengren Speaks 10:15 AM ET 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET TD Ameritrade IMX 12:30 PM ET Neel Kashkari Speaks 5:15 PM ET Neel Kashkari Speaks 7:00 PM ET	Charles Evans Speaks 1:00 AM ET International Trade 8:30 AM ET Gallup US ECI 8:30 AM ET Redbook 8:55 AM ET PMI Services Index 9:45 AM ET JOLTS 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET	MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index 8:30 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET Loretta Mester Speaks 12:20 PM ET FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET Rob Kaplan Speaks 8:00 PM ET	Weekly Bill Settlement Chain Store Sales  Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 3-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET 10-Yr Note Announcement 11:00 AM ET 30-Yr Bond Announcement 11:00 AM ET Consumer Credit 3:00 PM ET Treasury STRIPS 3:00 PM ET Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET Money Supply 4:30 PM ET Janet Yellen Speaks 5:30 PM ET Esther George Speaks 8:15 PM ET	Rob Kaplan Speaks 9:30 AM ET Wholesale Trade 10:00 AM ET Baker-Hughes Rig Count 1:00 PM ET